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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."